Paper von Prof. Bofinger und Thomas Haas: R-Star: A new approach to estimate the polar star of monetary policy
04.09.2023Im Zuge der aktuellen Debatte bezüglich Anpassungen bei der Bestimmung des natürlichen Zinses schlagen Prof. Bofinger und Thomas Haas eine simplere Methode vor. Ihr Ansatz liefert vergleichbare Resultate zu bestehenden Studieren und eine Erklärung für die amerikanische Geldpolitik der vergangenen 60 Jahre.
The necessary adjustments to prominent measures of the neutral rate of interest following the COVID pandemic sparked a wide-ranging debate on the measurement and usefulness of r-star. Due to high uncertainty about relevant determinants, trend patterns and the correct estimation method, we propose in this paper a simple alternative approach derived from a standard macro model. Starting from a loss function, neutral periods can be determined in which a neutral real interest rate is observable. Using these values, a medium- to long-term trend for a neutral interest rate can be determined. An application to the USA shows that our simple calculation of a neutral interest rate delivers comparable results to existing studies. A Taylor rule based on our neutral interest rate also does a fairly good job of explaining US monetary policy over the past 60 years.
R-Star: A new approach to estimate the polar star of monetary policy
